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0
Trade War
0
Fed Oranları
20
Inflation
61
Macro Indicators
3
GDP
29
Global Rates
0
Vergiler
0
Treasuries
11
TSA
0
Housing
24
Ekonomi
Ekonomi
All
Trade War
Fed Oranları
Inflation
Macro Indicators
GDP
Global Rates
Vergiler
Treasuries
TSA
Housing
Fed Decision in July?
No change
85%
Yes
85%
No
15%
25 bps increase
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
50+ bps increase
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
25 bps decrease
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
50+ bps decrease
0%
Yes
0%
No
100%
$81.6M Vol.
Fed rate hike by...?
October Meeting
59%
Yes
59%
No
41%
September Meeting
47%
Yes
47%
No
53%
$2.5M Vol.
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↑ 4.25%
25%
Yes
25%
No
75%
↓ 3.25%
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
↑ 4.75%
6%
Yes
6%
No
94%
↑ 4.5%
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
↓ 2.5%
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
↓ 2.0%
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$1.8M Vol.
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
3.9%
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
3.6%
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
2.0%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
3.8%
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
3.7%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
3.0%
2%
Yes
2%
No
98%
$226k Vol.
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
8%
chance
Yes
No
$164k Vol.
Fed Decision in September?
No change
82%
Yes
82%
No
18%
25 bps decrease
21%
Yes
21%
No
79%
25 bps increase
10%
Yes
10%
No
90%
50+ bps increase
5%
Yes
5%
No
95%
50+ bps decrease
4%
Yes
4%
No
96%
$52k Vol.
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
0
73%
Yes
73%
No
27%
1
14%
Yes
14%
No
86%
2
9%
Yes
9%
No
91%
3
3%
Yes
3%
No
97%
4+
1%
Yes
1%
No
99%
$31k Vol.
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
2%
chance
Yes
No
$6k Vol.
What will be the next Fed rate change?
55%
Hike
Hike
Cut
$4k Vol.
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